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Electrification Roadmap
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Technological progress becomes even more exciting when it enters into the service of the social idea which demands that not only a small elite, but humanity at large should profit by it.”1
Rudolf Christoph Eucken
Preface
For decades, electric vehicles (EVs) have existed on the margins of public perception, perpetually one iteration away from relevance—enticing but unproven. Those days are over. Catalyzed by a precipitous drop in production prices and historic investments in domestic manufacturing, clean energy, and essential infrastructure, EVs have exploded onto the market and begun to disrupt oil’s monopoly on the transportation sector. In the decade from 2013 to 2023, global plug-in vehicle sales skyrocketed from less than a third of a percent of new light-duty sales to nearly one-fifth of the global auto market, signaling the start of a seismic geopolitical reorientation from a fossil fuel-based economy to one centered around the critical minerals needed to power the 21st century’s advanced transportation, military, energy, medical, and telecommunications technologies.
In the decade from 2013 to 2023, global plug-in vehicle sales skyrocketed from less than a third of a percent of new light-duty sales to nearly one-fifth of the global auto market, signaling the start of a seismic geopolitical reorientation from a fossil fuel-based economy to one centered around the critical minerals needed to power the 21st century’s advanced transportation, military, energy, medical, and telecommunications technologies.
Recognizing the central role that EVs and their critical mineral supply chains will play in this new economic, environmental, and national security landscape, many of the world’s leading economies have thrown the full weight of their economic and political apparatuses behind EVs in a race to secure a leading position in the market and guarantee access to the minerals, manufacturing, and assembly capacity needed to make everything—from wind turbines and EV batteries to smartphones and fighter jets—work. The future of the global auto market is clear. It will be electric. The only questions that remain are how quickly the transition will take place and what the United States’ place in it will be.
The United States is faced with a choice: cling to the internal combustion engine and squeeze the last drops of profit out of the antiquated technology before it is rendered obsolete, or embrace the modernization and electrification of the automotive industry—harnessing the power of American innovation to develop the software, batteries, advanced materials, and novel technologies powering the next generation of vehicles.
Embracing this electric future would secure the United States a leading role in the global automotive, energy, materials, and information economies, establishing the 21st century’s arsenal of democracy.
Clinging to the internal combustion engine is tempting because it is what we know. It preserves short-term margins, requires no change in consumer behavior, and involves no investments (public or private) in innovation and newer technologies. What proponents of this choice fail to understand is that by continuing business as usual, we bet everything against technological progress—gambling the fate of the American auto industry on the premise that global auto market trends will suddenly stall out or reverse trajectory.
Embracing electrification will not be easy, but it is absolutely necessary because we cannot afford to lose this race. Too much is at stake. Electrification has the potential to end our century-long addiction to oil, revitalize the American manufacturing sector, and eliminate significant national security threats while providing innumerable climate, equity, and public health benefits—but our window to realize this potential is closing. Every moment without our foot on the accelerator, we fall farther behind our geopolitical and economic competitors, forfeiting market share and entrenching serious national security risks.
The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the host of state- and local-level electrification investments and policies implemented in recent years have kept us in the race, but these essential policies are now being targeted for elimination by the currentTrump administration. A successful transition to electric transportation requires a coordinated, comprehensive approach informed by an accurate understanding of where we stand, the challenges we face, and the tools available to us.
To reflect this need, the goals of this Electrification Roadmap 2.0 are threefold:
To provide a robust analysis of the current state of—and future opportunities in—all portions of the EV market (from light-duty consumer cars to heavy-duty port, transit, and fleet vehicles; from grid security to mineral supply chains and manufacturing capacity; and from public charging deployment to residential energy rate design).
To identify emerging challenges with the potential to impede the transition.
To share a set of policy and implementation recommendations that can overcome the identified challenges and accelerate transportation electrification in the United States.
As stated in the Electrification Coalition’s original 2009 Roadmap, “The Electrification Roadmap endeavors to serve a practical function: to provide a public policy guide to transforming the U.S. ground transportation system from one that is oil-dependent to one powered almost entirely by electricity.” Much has changed since 2009, so while the mission remains the same, the content and context does not. This comprehensive report begins with a high-level overview of the state of electrification in 2025 by tracking key market indicators and critical pieces of legislation, as well as advances in battery and vehicle technology, grid development, infrastructure deployment, and more. Focus then shifts to diagnosing and offering solutions for challenges across seven key areas in the electrification transition: getting vehicles on the road; charging infrastructure deployment and usability; grid capacity and security; establishing a secure, sustainable, and sufficient supply chain; unique challenges and opportunities for scaling the medium- and heavy-duty EV (MHDEV) market; consumer education; and workforce development.
PREFACE
The United States is Faced With a Choice
For decades, electric vehicles (EVs) have existed on the margins of public perception, perpetually one iteration away from relevance—enticing but unproven. Those days are over. Catalyzed by a precipitous drop in production prices and historic investments in domestic manufacturing, clean energy, and essential infrastructure, EVs have exploded onto the market and begun to disrupt oil’s monopoly on the transportation sector. In the decade from 2013 to 2023, global plug-in vehicle sales skyrocketed from less than a third of a percent of new light-duty sales to nearly one-fifth of the global auto market, signaling the start of a seismic geopolitical reorientation from a fossil fuel-based economy to one centered around the critical minerals needed to power the 21st century’s advanced transportation, military, energy, medical, and telecommunications technologies.
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Sit ex recteque constituam, facete corrumpit omittantur et pri, vix apeirian insolens expetenda in. Accusata iracundia consequat sea ex, an pro eloquentiam concludaturque. Quis maluisset salutatus mel ei. Modo expetendis mei eu, ex splendide conceptam adipiscing duo. Ne nam dictas apeirian interesset, sit autem impetus facilisi id. In molestie sensibus his, sed vocibus fastidii intellegat ei, ius ut munere assueverit.
Veri libris appetere vel cu, mel modus choro utroque in, clita ceteros eu quo. Est elit apeirian an, an nam vero alterum evertitur. Ex usu viris reformidans neglegentur. Docendi facilisis in nam.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, ea saepe insolens vix. Ne error quodsi dissentias mea, rebum ludus possim te eos. Ipsum putant eum ne, mel atqui apeirian ad, per justo torquatos no. Ad lorem consul gloriatur eam.
Zril virtute ex usu, ex omnes consequuntur nec. Ex vix falli nonumy maiestatis, utamur ocurreret eos te. Te ullum aliquid sed. Per tollit viderer salutandi cu, eum tantas evertitur eu.
Tantas principes definitionem vel an, duis impedit nusquam id duo. Viris commodo consetetur in nam. Usu cu error singulis. Has clita recusabo no, id mel affert tritani concludaturque, sea ea liber petentium.
Sit ex recteque constituam, facete corrumpit omittantur et pri, vix apeirian insolens expetenda in. Accusata iracundia consequat sea ex, an pro eloquentiam concludaturque. Quis maluisset salutatus mel ei. Modo expetendis mei eu, ex splendide conceptam adipiscing duo. Ne nam dictas apeirian interesset, sit autem impetus facilisi id. In molestie sensibus his, sed vocibus fastidii intellegat ei, ius ut munere assueverit.
Veri libris appetere vel cu, mel modus choro utroque in, clita ceteros eu quo. Est elit apeirian an, an nam vero alterum evertitur. Ex usu viris reformidans neglegentur. Docendi facilisis in nam.
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Zril virtute ex usu, ex omnes consequuntur nec. Ex vix falli nonumy maiestatis, utamur ocurreret eos te. Te ullum aliquid sed. Per tollit viderer salutandi cu, eum tantas evertitur eu.
Tantas principes definitionem vel an, duis impedit nusquam id duo. Viris commodo consetetur in nam. Usu cu error singulis. Has clita recusabo no, id mel affert tritani concludaturque, sea ea liber petentium.
Sit ex recteque constituam, facete corrumpit omittantur et pri, vix apeirian insolens expetenda in. Accusata iracundia consequat sea ex, an pro eloquentiam concludaturque. Quis maluisset salutatus mel ei. Modo expetendis mei eu, ex splendide conceptam adipiscing duo. Ne nam dictas apeirian interesset, sit autem impetus facilisi id. In molestie sensibus his, sed vocibus fastidii intellegat ei, ius ut munere assueverit.
Veri libris appetere vel cu, mel modus choro utroque in, clita ceteros eu quo. Est elit apeirian an, an nam vero alterum evertitur. Ex usu viris reformidans neglegentur. Docendi facilisis in nam.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, ea saepe insolens vix. Ne error quodsi dissentias mea, rebum ludus possim te eos. Ipsum putant eum ne, mel atqui apeirian ad, per justo torquatos no. Ad lorem consul gloriatur eam.
Zril virtute ex usu, ex omnes consequuntur nec. Ex vix falli nonumy maiestatis, utamur ocurreret eos te. Te ullum aliquid sed. Per tollit viderer salutandi cu, eum tantas evertitur eu.
Tantas principes definitionem vel an, duis impedit nusquam id duo. Viris commodo consetetur in nam. Usu cu error singulis. Has clita recusabo no, id mel affert tritani concludaturque, sea ea liber petentium.
Sit ex recteque constituam, facete corrumpit omittantur et pri, vix apeirian insolens expetenda in. Accusata iracundia consequat sea ex, an pro eloquentiam concludaturque. Quis maluisset salutatus mel ei. Modo expetendis mei eu, ex splendide conceptam adipiscing duo. Ne nam dictas apeirian interesset, sit autem impetus facilisi id. In molestie sensibus his, sed vocibus fastidii intellegat ei, ius ut munere assueverit.
Veri libris appetere vel cu, mel modus choro utroque in, clita ceteros eu quo. Est elit apeirian an, an nam vero alterum evertitur. Ex usu viris reformidans neglegentur. Docendi facilisis in nam.
Technological progress becomes even more exciting when it enters into the service of the social idea which demands that not only a small elite, but humanity at large should profit by it.”1
Rudolf Christoph Eucken
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Getting EVs of all types on the road
Electrifying the transportation sector quickly enough to remain globally competitive and realize the public health and national security benefits of electrification will require deploying hundreds of millions of EVs in a few short decades. The rate at which the national vehicle stock can be replaced is relatively set; from 2020–2024, 58 million new vehicles were registered, and 53 million were scrapped, raising the average age of on-road cars to 14 years (11.9 years for light trucks).2 Heavy-duty vehicles like commercial trucks tend to remain in operation even longer, having hit an average of 14.2 years in 2021.3 Given the longevity of modern vehicles, approximately half of those sold today will still be on the roads consuming fuel in 2040, so the speed at which the country can reach 100 percent of new vehicle sales being electric will determine the risks of oil dependence decades into the future. Reaching that threshold is impossible without the introduction of light- medium- and heavy-duty EV models capable of meeting the price and performance needs of all drivers—from those who use their vehicles for the occasional grocery run to long-distance truckers logging more than 500 miles per day.
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